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美国发动伊拉克战争决策探析——小集团思维理论的视角
  • 摘要

    美国发动伊拉克战争的决策从一开始就备受争议,文章拟从小集团思维理论视角,分析美国发动此次战争的原因.小布什领导下的“战争内阁”主导了此次决策的整个过程.决策具备引发小集团思维的前置因素:小布什领导的“战争内阁”具有较强的凝聚力,小布什个人体现出一种命令式的领导方式,情报部门之间缺乏相互信任、沟通和协调,小集团成员具有相似的从政经历,以及受到“9·11”恐怖袭击的冲击.决策的小集团思维表现突出,影响明显.小布什领导下的“战争内阁”对萨达姆政府存在着独裁政权等刻板印象,认为伊拉克在发展大规模杀伤性武器,如果与基地组织结合,将严重威胁到美国的安全.他们忽略负面的反馈信息,施压子内阁中持异议的成员,有意识地去寻找能够对伊动武的情报信息,把已确定的行动方案作为唯一正确、合理的方案,缺乏对潜在风险的细致评估权衡.小布什政府对伊战争决策明显受到了小集团思维这种非理性心理认知的影响.

  • 作者

    韩召颖  宋晓丽 

  • 作者单位

    南开大学周恩来政府管理学院国际关系系,天津,300071

  • 刊期

    2013年2期 PKU CSSCI

  • 关键词

    伊拉克战争  小布什政府  "战争内阁"  小集团思维 

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